Posted by
Politically Exposed on Tuesday, November 14, 2006 3:27:15 PM
Monday, November 13, 2006
Posted by
Dean Barnett
|
5:22 PM
I hate to say it, but the fix is in. The Iraq Study Group will be the 9/11 Commission redux, in more ways than one.
By
swerving outside its lane and officiously volunteering to redesign our
intelligence gathering apparatuses, the 9/11 Commission gave our
political class a convenient excuse to shirk its responsibilities. It’s
hard to imagine a single solon so neglectful that in the wake of the
catastrophic intelligence failures that begot 9/11, he didn’t give at
least some thought to how our intelligence agencies could be improved.
But
singing a rare bipartisan grace note, the congressional leaders of both
parties decided that the 9/11 Commission was omniscient on all matters
concerning intelligence. After all, if brilliant thinkers like Richard
ben Veniste, Jamie Gorelick and the former governor of New Jersey
didn’t have all the answers on how to completely revamp our
intelligence agencies, who did?
The
presence of the 9/11 Commission gave Congress a convenient excuse. By
universally agreeing to outsource Intelligence Design to a merry band
of partisan lawyers and ex-politicians, our political class had
effectively passed the buck. If/when the next terrorist attack comes,
politicians near and far can defend themselves by reminding the public
that they supported the 9/11 Commission in all matters big and small,
thereby intimating, “What more could I have done?”
The
same dispiriting Kabuki ritual is due to be performed once again with
the Iraq Study Group reprising the role formerly played by the 9/11
Commission. Ancient Congressional dinosaur Lee Hamilton is the only
holdover from one cast to another.
Lee
Hamilton happens to be a very good man. I’m less sanguine about James
Baker’s personal attributes than Hamilton’s, but he’s earned a right to
have his opinion heard also.
But
the preemptive deference being accorded both of these figures is way
out of line. I don’t recall the Democratic Party being so eager to
embrace Baker’s every pearl of wisdom back in 1990-1991. And for that
matter I don’t recall the Athenians adopting Hamilton’s advice without
question when they were fighting the Spartans. The Iraq Study Group’s
conclusions should be taken for what they’re worth. If they’re
valuable, then they should be treasured. If they’re worthless, they
should be treated as such.
Again,
my biggest fear is that the Baker/Hamilton commission will give our
political class an excuse to punt away its responsibilities. Regardless
of how steeped the recommendations are in misguided “realist” nonsense,
the media and our political class will rush to acclaim them as unique
new insights that must be immediately implemented.
Merely
anticipating this ritual is enough to crush a pundit’s spirit. It’s
just so dumb. It’s not like the Iraq Study Group is going to produce a
single unique insight. The only new thing it will “accomplish” is the
introduction of a new player in the War on Terror drama. This addition
to the dramatis personae will allow the administration and its
abettors in Congress to tip over the checkerboard and start anew while
claiming that they’re all just deferring to a higher authority.
In
their younger days, both Hamilton and Baker dreamed of the presidency.
Even if they had won the oval office, they never would have had their
policies so unanimously hailed and so eagerly adopted by Washington’s
political class as will be the case in the coming weeks.
So
what happens next? We can momentarily console ourselves with the hope
that the Iraq Study Group surprises us and offers a solution more
muscular than seeking a diplomatic accord with people who have been
rather outspoken regarding their desire to see us destroyed. If that
happens, then almost everyone will get on board with the war against
Jihadism and the administration will get a second crack at bat.
But
that scenario is unlikely. Given the predominance of self-styled
“realpolitik” practitioners in the study group and the fervor with
which the cut-and-run caucus is awaiting its pronouncements, we have
reason to fear that their counsel will be to leave the Middle East in
peace (relatively speaking) and normalize relations with our
malefactors as much as possible.
We
can expect a lot of gooey reassuring rhetoric from the study group that
our problems in the Middle East can be solved by winning hearts and
minds. Expect much pabulum about carrots and sticks. And don’t forget
the tiresome but erroneous assertion that the only people who really
want to kill us are a bunch of cave dwelling whack-jobs in Waziristan,
but that the rest of the region is just aching to start a love affair
with America.
SO
WHAT CAN WE DO IN the face of such a determined effort to put lipstick
on a pig? First, we have to be prepared to utter the unpleasant and
seemingly unspeakable truth.
The
first key factor that few Americans seem to know that is Al Qaeda and
Hezbollah are not some strange, tiny and exotic minority in the Islamic
world. If free elections were held in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood
would win. The Muslim Brotherhood is composed of Ayman al Zawahiri’s
old playmates. If free elections were held in Saudi Arabia, a Salafist
regime ideologically in sync with Al Qaeda would win. In Pakistan, yet
again, Al Qaeda sympathizers would be major players. In the free
election held in Palestine, terror group Hamas was a landslide winner.
In Iran, the current regime is popular. In Jordan, free elections would
see the moderate Hashemite regime toppled and replaced by a far more
belligerent entity.
So
what does all this mean? It means a storm is gathering. At this moment,
our would-be malefactors’ abilities to seriously damage us are limited
to terrorist attacks and economic disruption.
But
those are only the threats of the moment. In time, the threats will
grow. Exponentially. Although right now the Islamic world can’t so much
as produce a shotgun on its own, that will change as petrodollars mix
with government-sponsored Jihadism.
The
ultimate component of the threat is the philosophy of Jihadism. While
Saudi benefactors have convinced American academic uber-schmucks like
John Esposito to see jihad as a form of yoga done while facing Mecca,
that interpretation doesn’t square with the rhetoric coming out of the
Islamic world. Islam’s most prominent and popular spiritual leader,
Yussuf al-Qaradawi, has vowed to conquer Europe and America. In Iran,
the Khomenist regime has turned against centuries of traditional Shiite
disinterest in politics and likewise has announced plans to conquer the
non-Islamic portions of the world. Al Qaeda you know about.
In
short, if we don’t somehow reform that part of the world or at the very
least dissuade the people there that their ambitions are misguided, we
are in for the fight of our lives.
AGAIN,
WHAT CAN WE DO? The first thing we must do is make a steady and
unwavering effort to educate our countrymen. If the events of the last
week have proven anything, they have shown that so far we haven’t made
much headway in that regard. For this, I blame ourselves. The only
Republican politician of any prominence who made this case in the
latest campaign season was Rick Santorum. Other than that, the silence
from conservative politicians was as conspicuous as it was damning.
I
call on looking-for-work politicians like Rick Santorum, Chris Chocola
and New Gingrich who understand the threat to take this message to
every Podunk little TV station and eager Elks Lodge that will host
them. Progress here will be measured in inches, not miles. But if we do
this right, we can make sure the Republican presidential primary
revolves around this issue and that it gets a good airing for the first
time. They should also be reaching out to potential allies in the
Islamic world who are as appalled by the Jihadist menace as we are.
I’ve
written here many times of how Winston Churchill spent the 1930’s as a
back bencher doing everything in his power to convince his countrymen
of the threat posed by Nazi Germany. It took a cataclysm for Great
Britain to finally agree with him, but at least he tried. And when his
hour finally came, he saved his country.
Hopefully it won’t take a cataclysm to awaken our slumbering countrymen. But regardless, let us try.
Compliments? Complaints? Contact me at Soxblog@aol.com